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Democrats and Republicans would split the four U.S. Senate seats in these western states if the election took place today.

Vancouver, BC – With less than 50 days to go in the United States Presidential Election campaign, Republican nominee Donald Trump is the first choice for decided voters in Arizona and Nevada, while Hillary Clinton would continue the dominance of the Democratic Party in California and Washington State, new research conducted by Insights West has found.


Trump holds a five-point lead over Clinton (46% to 41%) among decided voters, with Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson at 9% and Green candidate Jill Stein at 1%.

Three-in-five decided voters in the Grand Canyon State (59%) would cast a ballot for Republican incumbent John McCain in the race for the U.S. Senate, with Democratic candidate Ann Kirkpatrick at 39%.

More than half of decided voters in Arizona (56%) currently support Proposition 205, which would allow adults aged 21 and older to possess and to privately consume and grow limited amounts of marijuana. Two thirds (68%) are ready to endorse Proposition 206, which seeks to raise the minimum wage and guarantee annual paid sick time.


Clinton holds a commanding advantage over Trump among decided voters (62% to 34%), with Johnson and Stein in single digits (2% and 1% respectively).

In the race for the U.S. Senate, which features two Democratic candidates, Kamala Harris is ahead of Loretta Sanchez (58% to 38%), although almost three-in-ten likely voters are undecided (28%).

Proposition 63, which seeks to prohibit the possession of large-capacity ammunition magazines, is currently backed by 68% of decided voters in the Golden State. Support is slightly lower for Proposition 64, which would legalize marijuana under state law (57% of decided voters would vote “Yes”).


Trump is three points ahead of Clinton (47% to 44% among decided voters) in a state carried by Barack Obama in the 2008 and 2012 elections, with Johnson at 6%. Stein’s name will not appear on the ballot in November.

Republican Joe Heck holds a five-point edge over Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto (50% to 45% among decided voters) in the race to replace retiring U.S. Senator Harry Reid.

Question 1, a proposal to establish mandatory background checks for gun sales or transfers, is supported by 71% of decided voters in the Silver State. The race is closer on Question 2, which seeks to legalize the consumption and sale of marijuana by adults, with “Yes” at 55% and “No” at 45%.


Clinton holds a 12-point advantage over Trump among decided voters in the presidential race (44% to 32%), with a particularly strong showing for Johnson (16%).

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Patty Murray holds a large lead over Republican challenger Chris Vance (63% to 34%).

On Initiative 732, which seeks to impose a carbon emission tax on the sale or use of certain fossil fuels and fossil-fuel-generated electricity, the race is extremely close, with “No” ahead by six points (53% to 47%). Two thirds of decided voters in the Evergreen State (65%) would vote “Yes” on Initiative 1433, which would increase the state minimum wage, require employers to provide paid sick leave, and adopt related laws.


About Insights West:

Insights West is a progressive, Western-based, full-service marketing research company. It exists to serve the market with insights-driven research solutions and interpretive analysis through leading-edge tools, normative databases, and senior-level expertise across a broad range of public and private sector organizations. Insights West is based in Vancouver and Calgary.

About this Release:

Results are based on online studies conducted from September 12 to September 14, 2016, among representative samples of 484 likely voters in Arizona, 515 likely voters in California, 398 likely voters in Nevada, and 505 likely voters in Washington State. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.3 percentage points for the California sample, +/- 4.4 percentage points for the Washington sample, +/- 4.5 percentage points for the Arizona sample, and +/- 4.9 percentage points for the Nevada sample. Click to view the detailed data tabulations for Arizona, California, Nevada and Washington.

For further information, please contact:

Mario Canseco
Vice President, Public Affairs, Insights West


Photograph: xiquinhosilva