Canadians from coast to coast went to the polls on Monday, October 21, 2019. In British Columbia, 42 seats were up for grabs.
Results from the 2019 Federal Election were pretty electric, especially given the dynamics and events leading up to and including the final tally of the ballots. Our three polls over the course of the election showed that the Conservatives were consistently ahead of the other parties in British Columbia, that the Liberals had established a base of support that hadn’t wavered much over the campaign, and that the NDP had enjoyed a last-minute surge in support in the final weeks. Polling results across the nation throughout the campaign were close enough that most pollsters were correctly calling for a minority government.
It was also a significant night for Insights West, because once again, it validated our approach to election polling, as we were the closest research company to predicting the popular vote in British Columbia by a significant margin. This was also the case in the last Provincial election in British Columbia.
Not only did we successfully predict the election outcome almost to a tee, we have now extended our winning streak in predicting election outcomes in 24 out of 25 elections and plebiscites that we’ve covered.
One of the questions I continually get asked as a pollster is “who is going to win the next election?” and I find myself relating it back to our core purpose of being passionate, truth-seeking researchers who understand consumer and societal trends. Then the question I often ask myself is “why do we take on the risk of election polling?” There are several reasons. We think it’s important to continually demonstrate that our approach to election polling is sound, and I have always believed that if we can accurately predict election results, then we can certainly accurately predict how people perceive brands, advertising & communications, perceptions of your competition, or any other research objective that needs to be explored. Correctly calling elections provides us with the validation we need to create trust for our clients and partners, and it also sets us apart from our competitors who aren’t willing to stick their necks out far enough to validate their own approach.
Insights West is now 8 years old, and I’m proud of what we’ve been able to accomplish in this time period—especially with last night’s result.
I want to thank Daphne Cuthbert who organizes our election polls, and our Chief Methodologist Catherine Dawson who is my rock when it comes to sound sampling practices, and balancing & weighting of the sample, Tim Travis who is responsible for the analysis and distribution of our results to our multiple channels, and many others behind-the-scenes people who work together to enable us to do what we do.
Thank you for your continued support in our endeavours!
- October 18, 2019: BC Polling in Final Days of 2019 Federal Election Campaign
- September 24, 2019: Federal Polling and Leadership Approval in BC