Update: Your Insights on the Upcoming BC Election

The New Democrats’ lead is cut in half, from 12 points to 6, as the Liberals make gains following leadership debate. The NDP (33%) continues to lead the BC Liberals (27%) and undecided (15%) voters have dropped, while the Greens (11%) and Conservatives (9%) hold stable.

The remaining undecided voters continue to lean towards Liberals slightly (29%) over the NDP (24%), suggesting that the gap could continue to erode.

Our earlier poll released this week showed 68% watched at least some of the televised leader’s debate, and a statistical tie; 31% felt Adrian Dix won, and a nearly equal number felt Christy Clark won (28%).

Vancouver, BC – A recent Insights West online poll surveyed 822 BC adults immediately following the leadership debate through this morning, and found the NDP lead has narrowed considerably from our last poll, dropping from a 12 point gap to a 6 point lead. If the election were held tomorrow, 33% of adults say they would vote NDP, the Liberals would garnish 27% of the votes—while the number of undecided voters has dropped from 20% to 15%. The BC Green Party continues to capture more voters (11%) than the BC Conservative Party (9%); 1% would vote for other parties/independents and 5% said they would not vote.

The undecided vote has dropped from 20% to 15% and, like the last Insights West election poll, voters in this camp are leaning more towards the BC Liberals (29%) than the NDP (24%), while the BC Green Party holds at 15% followed by the BC Conservatives (7%). A solid 26% still insist they are truly unsure/undecided.

Among decided voters only, the NDP continues to maintain a strong lead (41%) over the BC Liberals (33%). Our poll indicates that the Green Party (14%) enjoys slightly greater support than The BC Conservative Party (11%).

Regionally, the NDP holds a lead across all of BC among decided voters, and on Vancouver Island enjoys a 15-point lead over the Liberal party (43% NDP, 28% Liberal). Strong Green support continues on the Island (20%), but numbers have dropped slightly (-4 points) from our last poll.

The gap is even narrower among the key demographic of 35-54 year-olds, where 38% of decided voters would vote Liberal, and 40% would vote NDP. The NDP holds a more considerable lead among 18-34 year-old’s (36% vs 28% of decided voters) and among the 55+ age group (44% NDP – 32% Liberal).

Voter intentions appear to be solidifying as well, as 62% of decided voters say they are ‘certain’ about who they will vote for come election day, 32% are ‘fairly certain’, and only 7% are ‘not very’ or ‘not at all’ certain. Slightly more NDP supporters appear to be certain about their vote (68%) compared to Liberal voters (64%).

“Clearly the ‘tie’ during the BC Election Leaders debate ended up being a ‘win’ for Christy Clark,” comments Steve Mossop, President of Insights West. “The Liberals now appear to have momentum, the gap has narrowed, and suddenly we have a more interesting election race here in British Columbia.”

In the Insights West poll released the morning after the BC Leader’s debate showed that voters felt Christy Clark and Adrian Dix delivered a tie performance in the debate. Leaving our survey open for several more days (until 10AM this morning) confirms the same findings. Click here to refer to this earlier press release.

About Insights West:

Insights West is a progressive, Western-based, full-service marketing research company. It exists to serve the market with insights-driven research solutions and interpretive analysis through leading-edge tools, normative databases, and senior-level expertise across a broad range of public and private sector organizations. Insights West is based in Vancouver and Calgary and has eight full-time and five part-time employees.

Results are based on an online study conducted from April 29th to Thursday the 2nd, at 11AM 2013, among 855 residents of BC aged 18+ who are Your Insights panel members. YourInsights.ca is Insights West’s in-house access panel offering on-demand samples for both clients and research suppliers looking for Western Canadian populations. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for BC for age, gender, and region of BC. While statistical margins of error are arguably not applicable to online panels/online studies of this nature, we have assumed that the same margins of error apply as if it were a true unweighted random probability sample with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty. To view the detailed data tabulations, click here.

For further information, please contact:

Steve Mossop
President, Insights West
778-891-4762
stevemossop@insightswest.com