Support for No Surges in Metro Vancouver Transit Plebiscite

PR Image - Transit Plebiscite 3 by Dag Agacino

Drivers, middle-income earners and residents who live south of the Fraser River are the least likely to vote Yes.

Vancouver, BC – A majority of Metro Vancouver residents are currently planning to vote No in the upcoming Transportation and Transit Plebiscite, a new Insights West poll has found.

The online survey of a representative sample of adult Metro Vancouver residents shows that 53% say they will “definitely” or “probably” vote No (+11 points since January), while 38% (-8) will “definitely” or “probably” vote Yes. Among voters who claim to have made a “definite” choice, No outranks Yes by a 2 to 1 margin (34% to 16%).

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Voters 18 to 34 are evenly split on the question (Yes 46%, No 45%), while those aged 35 to 54 (52%) and those aged 55 and over (59%) are more likely to say they will vote No.

Support for Yes among residents who rely on public transit to get to work or school on weekdays dropped markedly, from 61% last month to 52% in February. More than half of those who bike or walk (54%) say they will vote Yes, while a majority of drivers (57%) say they will vote No.

“Our December and January surveys showed that the Yes side was inching ahead due to soft voters,” says Mario Canseco, Vice President, Public Affairs at Insights West. “This month, we see a double-digit increase for the No side, with the bulk of this support coming from drivers, middle-income earners and residents of the municipalities located south of the Fraser River, such as Surrey.”

Across Metro Vancouver, three-in-four residents (74%, +13 since January) say they are aware of the upcoming plebiscite, and 64% (+11) claim to be “very” or “somewhat” familiar with it.

The Yes Voters

Support for the Yes side is not accompanied by an enthusiastic endorsement of TransLink. In fact, 70% of Yes voters acknowledge that while they are not satisfied with TransLink’s performance, they believe the plebiscite is the best way to deal with the region’s current and future transit problems.

Only 10% of Yes voters have confidence in TransLink ensuring that the transportation projects are implemented properly, and a similarly paltry proportion (13%) express confidence in the mayors making the best decision when it comes to funding these projects.

The No Voters

Four-in-five No voters (82%) say they do not have confidence in TransLink to do a good job to ensure that the transportation projects are implemented properly, and three-in-four (74%) think there are other ways to fund them.

In addition, almost half of No voters (47%) say they do not trust the Mayors to make the best decision when it comes to funding these projects, and two-in-five (43%) say they intend to send a message to both TransLink and the Mayors by voting No.

Projects and Campaigning

When asked about the most important projects for them personally, residents cite maintaining and upgrading the region’s major roads (24%), increasing service on SkyTrain, Canada Line, SeaBus and West Coast Express (18%) and adding bus service and new B-line rapid routes (16%) as their top three personal priorities.

Two-in-five Metro Vancouverites (41%, +5) say they have enough information on exactly which projects will take place in their community if the plebiscite is successful.

About Insights West:

Insights West is a progressive, Western-based, full-service marketing research company. It exists to serve the market with insights-driven research solutions and interpretive analysis through leading-edge tools, normative databases, and senior-level expertise across a broad range of public and private sector organizations. Insights West is based in Vancouver and Calgary and has ten full-time and five part-time employees.

About this Release:

Results are based on an online study conducted from February 12 to February 14, 2015, among 653 adult residents of Metro Vancouver who are Your Insights panel members. YourInsights.ca is Insights West’s in-house access panel offering on-demand samples for both clients and research suppliers looking for Western Canadian populations. Results have a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Click here to view the detailed data tabulations for this study.

For further information, please contact:

Mario Canseco
Vice President, Public Affairs, Insights West
778-929-0490
mariocanseco@insightswest.com

 

Photograph: Dago Agacino