Clinton Leads Trump, Republicans Reject Changing Their Nominee

PR Image - Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore

Three-in-five Trump voters say there is nothing particularly offensive about the candidate’s comments on women.

Vancouver, BC – Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton heads to the final month of the United States presidential campaign with a solid lead over Republican Party contender Donald Trump, a new poll by Insights West has found.

The research also found that GOP supporters reject the notion of supplanting Trump before Election Day and express disappointment over the way Republican leaders in Congress have treated the presidential nominee.

In the online survey of a representative sample of likely voters, 42% say they will cast a ballot for Clinton in the presidential election, while 37% plan to support Trump. Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson is third with 6%, followed by Green Party candidate Jill Stein with 2%.

Clinton is holding on to 77% of Americans who voted for Barack Obama in 2012, while Trump keeps 72% of those who backed Mitt Romney in the last presidential election. Clinton is also attracting 81% of Bernie Sanders primary voters, while Trump is now being supported by 58% of Republicans who did not vote for him during the primaries.

Recent Trump Revelations

Almost half of Americans (47%) think that, given the revelations of the past few days, it is necessary for Trump to step aside and allow a different person to become the Republican nominee for president—including 49% of women and 56% of Millennials.

While a third of Republicans (32%) think it is time for a different nominee, the proportion falls to 19% among Trump primary voters and 16% among Trump general election voters.

Three-in-ten Americans agree with the statement: “There is nothing particularly offensive about Donald Trump’s comments on women—Americans talk like that all the time”. Only 19% of Democrats and 27% of Independents agreed with the statement, compared to 48% of Republicans, 66% of Trump primary voters and 62% of Trump general election voters.

Momentum

More than half of Americans (54%) say their opinion of Trump has worsened over the past month, including 57% of women and 28% of Republicans. This gives Trump a momentum score of -41 (13% say their opinion of the GOP nominee has improved). The momentum score is also negative for Clinton (-21, with 39% saying their opinion of the Democratic nominee has worsened). Almost half of Americans (47%) could not rate Stein, and two-in-five (39%) are undecided about Johnson.

Traits and Characteristics

Voters were asked whether the two main presidential nominees possess specific characteristics. Trump was ahead of Clinton on four traits: Being a good economic manager (45% to 34%), making the correct choice when picking a running mate (42% to 33%), being able to bring the kind of change America needs (38% to 31%) and being honest and trustworthy (28% to 23%).

Clinton outranked Trump in five traits: Being a good speaker and communicator (63% to 30%), having the right temperament to be president (48% to 23%), being in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives (38% to 33%), sharing the values of voters (34% to 29%) and being able to unite America and not divide it (32% to 28%).

Both candidates held similar numbers on being able to deal with labor unions effectively in the event of a dispute (41% for Clinton and 39% for Trump) and generally agreeing with voters on issues they care about (39% for each).

“The biggest challenges for each nominee in the final stages of the campaign are clearly defined,” says Mario Canseco, Vice President, Public Affairs, at Insights West. “Only one-in-five women and Millennials regard Clinton as honest and trustworthy, and fewer than a quarter of Independents and Generation X think Trump has the right temperament for the White House.”

More than a quarter of Americans (27%) say the economy, jobs and the federal deficit is the most important issue facing the country, followed by terrorism (16%) and leadership (9%).

Enthusiasm

More than half of voters (55%) say they are enthusiastic about the presidential candidate they are supporting. Those who voted for Clinton (85%) or Trump (81%) in their respective presidential primaries are decidedly more enthusiastic than Americans who voted for Bernie Sanders (41%) or any of the Republicans who participated in the primaries other than Trump (40%).

Just over a third of Americans (37%) say they are more excited about this presidential election than past presidential elections. There is a significant gender gap on this question, with 47% of men saying they are more excited about the 2016 race, compared to 29% of women.

Role of Leaders in Congress

Americans are split on whether political leaders in Congress should always support the presidential nominee of their political party (44% agree, 45% disagree). Republicans (63%) are more likely to agree with this statement than Democrats (36%), along with overwhelming majorities of Trump primary voters (86%) and Trump general election voters (75%).

When asked about the way Democratic leaders in Congress have approached the 2016 campaign, 43% of Americans say they have shown active and enthusiastic support for Clinton. The situation is very different for the Republican ticket, with just 4% of Americans saying the GOP leaders in Congress have actively and enthusiastically supported Trump.

About Insights West:

Insights West is a progressive, Western-based, full-service marketing research company. It exists to serve the market with insights-driven research solutions and interpretive analysis through leading-edge tools, normative databases, and senior-level expertise across a broad range of public and private sector organizations. Insights West is based in Vancouver and Calgary.

About this Release:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 10 to October 11, 2016, among a representative sample of 953 likely voters in the United States. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Click here to view the detailed data tabulations.

For further information, please contact:

Mario Canseco
Vice President, Public Affairs, Insights West
778-929-0490
mariocanseco@insightswest.com

 

Photograph: Gage Skidmore